President Donald Trump is visiting a Pennsylvania town this week to promote manufacturing in a state that helped him win the White House in 2016. ..…

If he continues down this current policy path, he will lose some of his popular support and these lost votes, in places like Pennsylvania and Michigan, will cost him the election. To win reelection, Trump must end the trade war; and he must do so no later than the summer of 2020.  . ..…

He points out there that especially Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, Trump's victory-margin was, fact, lower than Abromowitz's model had predicted it would be. ..…